We’re back with an update of team playoff odds. For previous odds and how these are calculated, take a look through my previous article walking through my methodology.
There’s been some movement, but the biggest story from this week is that even with their win against Minnesota, they now have a 61.4% chance of missing the playoffs.
The below table of total playoff odds is ordered based on current standings.
Since I put out my first version of playoff odds last week, New York has rapidly climbed the standings. They’ve gained a point in two of their last three games, pulling them up from a 38.6% chance of making the playoffs to a solid 50.3%.
Boston unfortunately did the exact opposite, going from a coin flip’s 49.5% chance to a 38.6% chance. They’re going to need to grab some points against titan Montréal this weekend if they want to stop their slide.
Ottawa and Toronto have held steady at 49.5% and 75.3% respectively, but their matchup this weekend is likely to move the needle for one or both of them.
Despite losing their edge for a first place finish to Montréal, Minnesota is slowly locking down a playoff spot. Montréal, as they were last week, is right on their heels.
On Feb. 28th, the PWHL announced that their draft order will be determined via the ‘Gold Plan’, where the team with the most points after being mathematically eliminated will select first overall. Since this is something that can easily be calculated with my current setup, I will start putting those probabilities into my weekly updates once the first team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
With half the season done, it’s beginning to feel like a battle for the third and fourth playoff spots. This weekend will be a chance for the bottom three teams to steal some points from the top ranked teams to level the playing field.
